Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson.
What a week we almost had. The most used survivor pool picks in Week 13 were the Seahawks, Raiders, and Vikings. Seattle was upset by the Giants, the Raiders should have lost to the Jets and the Vikings easily could have lost to the Jaguars but Minnesota held on in overtime.
But would, could, and should don’t matter in survivor pools. Whether you needed a Hail Mary to advance or not, you move on to play another week.
I’ll reiterate what I said in last week’s article. At this point in the season, being contrarian isn’t as valuable as it is early on. Your main focus should be maximizing your win probability over the four remaining weeks.
To help you do exactly that, here are the projected win percentages for the remainder of the season.
Check out our free NFL odds page, which automatically surfaces the best line for every game.
Here are the top options this week with their projected pick percentages and expected value.
| Team | Pick % | Model | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 51.7% | 87.4% | 1.08 |
| Saints | 5.4% | 72.5% | 1.08 |
| Ravens | 0.2% | 68.9% | 1.07 |
| Titans | 21.7% | 68.9% | 0.92 |
| Packers | 1.8% | 68.4% | 1.05 |
| Panthers | 3.0% | 67.0% | 1.02 |
| Buccaneers | 3.1% | 66.6% | 0.99 |
The Seahawks are being taken over 50% of the time and with good reason. They have the best odds to win this week and have a tough schedule ahead. Don’t get cute here. If you have Seattle available, take Seattle.
After Seattle, there is a big drop-off to the remaining options. I am higher than the market on Baltimore’s chances, but still would save them for upcoming games against Jacksonville or Cincinnati.
Tennessee would be the one team I would try to avoid because of their popularity and other teams around them with similar win probabilities. Of course, if other entries in your pool have already used the Titans, then my stance changes and are a fine play.
Carolina is the sneaky play when you look at the current odds. They are projected to be underdogs in their other three remaining games so using them now is your only shot.
If you don’t have any of the top options, the Panthers could be a calculated risk worth taking.
