Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Schakel.
The 2020 Big Ten/ACC Challenge — one of the best two-day spans in early-season college basketball — is over. But the early-season college basketball betting value will never end.
With that idea in mind, our college hoops staff hand-picked their three favorite bets of the day, ranging from Long Beach State vs. San Francisco to San Diego State vs. Arizona State.
After all, is there anything better to bet on a Thursday night than the 49ers playing a team called the Dons? Probably not.
Without further ado, check out our staff’s favorite bets for the day, complete with full betting analysis below.
How to Bet Thursday’s College Basketball Slate
Here’s a rundown of our favorite betting spots on Thursday’s slate of games:
| Tip Time | Matchup |
| [POSTPONED] | Mercer vs. VMI |
| 9 p.m. ET | Long Beach State vs. San Francisco |
| 10 p.m. ET | San Diego State vs. Arizona State |
All listed odds have been updated as of Thursday morning and via DraftKings. Specific bet recommendations at the end of each matchup breakdown come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing.
Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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| Tip Time | Matchup |
| [POSTPONED] | Mercer vs. VMI |
| 9 p.m. ET | Long Beach State vs. San Francisco |
| 10 p.m. ET | San Diego State vs. Arizona State |
Long Beach State vs. San Francisco (Over 147.5)
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| Long Beach State Odds | +16 [BET NOW] |
| San Francisco Odds | -16 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | +1000 / -2000 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 148 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | WCC Network |
| (Photo Credit: Ethan Miller/Getty Images). | |
Led by Jamaree Bouyea (60% effective field goal percentage) and Khalil Shabazz (33.3% 3-point percentage and 86.4% free throw percentage), the San Francisco Dons are a guard-oriented team that wants to do most of its damage from outside the arc — nearly 50% of its field goal attempts are 3-pointers.
It faces a Long Beach State team that has snagged the nation’s 222nd-ranked 3-point defensive efficiency while facing Seattle and Loyola Marymount.
While 3-point shots are the most effective way to maximize effective field goal percentage (you were right all along, Daryl Morey), they also lead to more misses and long rebounds.
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When it grabs the miss, Long Beach State will want to push the tempo. This is a squad currently ranking sixth in offensive possession length out of 358 Division I teams. While not overly efficient, this is also a side that has found its way to the foul line and has shot a high percentage once there.
This is a game in which the favorite is efficient offensively and the underdog will push the pace and put up easy points with the clock stopped. At this number, it sure looks like an over spot to me.
Take Long Beach State-San Francisco over at 147.5 (up to 149.5).
| [Bet the San Francisco-Long Beach State over at FanDuel completely risk-free up to $1,000] |
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| Tip Time | Matchup |
| [POSTPONED] | Mercer vs. VMI |
| 9 p.m. ET | Long Beach State vs. San Francisco |
| 10 p.m. ET | San Diego State vs. Arizona State |
San Diego State (+4.5) vs. Arizona State
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| San Diego State Odds | +4.5 [BET NOW] |
| Arizona State Odds | -4.5 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | N/A |
| Over/Under | 145.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| (Photo Credit: Kent Horner/Getty Images). | |
For those who may have forgotten, San Diego State was one week away from capping off a perfect regular season before losing two games down the stretch.
The Aztecs finished 30-2 and we projected to be No. 2 seed in the tournament. They lost three of their main contributors that made them elite last season.
However, San Diego State still has a ton of talent coming back, and most of all, its defense shouldn’t drop off drastically, as KenPom still has it projected as the best defense in the Mountain West in terms of efficiency by a long shot. The Aztecs cruised through their first four games, including a blowout win over UCLA.
Arizona State came into 2020 with a whole lot of expectations. Under Bobby Hurley, the Sun Devils are an absolute roller coaster. When they’re on their game, they’re the best team in the Pac-12. When they’re off, they’re in freefall down toward the bottom half of the conference.
However, Hurley has his best team yet, as his two main contributors, Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge, took their names out of the NBA Draft to come back for one more season. He also landed five-star recruit Joshua Christopher and four-star Marcus Bagley to round out an uber-talented starting five.
The name of the game for Hurley’s squad is offense and lots of it. The Sun Devils are projected as the 10th-best offense in terms of efficiency, as they can score the rock at will.
Their issues are going to lie on the defensive end of the floor as Hurley’s squad will be trying to win games in the 80s and 90s, especially since they are ranked 15th in terms of pace.
This is a classic situation of “control the pace, control the game.” San Diego State plays at a snail’s pace, while Arizona State wants to make it a track meet. I think San Diego State and its defense will be able to slow down the Sun Devils and keep this game in the 70s. And that’s not mentioning Arizona State will likely be without Bagley on Thursday because of a calf injury.
I only have the Sun Devils projected as -1.3 favorites with Bagley out, so I think there is value on Aztecs at +4.5.
| [Bet San Diego State now at PointsBet risk-free up to $250] |
CLICK THE DROPDOWN ARROW TO EASILY NAVIGATE TO ANY GAME
| Tip Time | Matchup |
| [POSTPONED] | Mercer vs. VMI |
| 9 p.m. ET | Long Beach State vs. San Francisco |
| 10 p.m. ET | San Diego State vs. Arizona State |
[POSTPONED] Mercer vs. VMI (Over 148)
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| Mercer Odds | -6 [BET NOW] |
| VMI Odds | +6 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | -265 / +210 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 148 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| (Photo Credit: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images). | |
There are few sure things in college sports these days, but rest assured the Keydets will play fast and barely play defense.
If you put aside VMI’s slow-down effort against the No. 16 Virginia Tech Hokies, the average Keydets game has come in at 156 points at the final horn.
Two years ago, VMI was allowing a staggering 84.4 points per game. Last season, VMI improved considerably, moving into the high-200s by allowing just 74.5 points per game. The thing is, the Southern Conference slowed down considerably last season from a scoring perspective.
In 2018, when VMI was getting shredded defensively, seven of the 10 SoCon teams averaged over 76 points per game. In 2019, that number fell to just two (WCU, ETSU). When you factor in its Downy-soft non-conference schedule, it’s safe to say its defensive improvement may have been wholly circumstantial.
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And now, we have a red-hot Mercer team traveling to Lexington, Virginia. The Bears are 5-0 SU, 2-0 ATS and beat Georgia Tech by 10 in Atlanta. Mercer is doing it with a perfectly balanced offense that features five players averaging 12+ points per game. They can also heat up from long range and have buried 45% of their triples this season (11th).
The Bears have poured in 432 points in just five games and there’s no reason to think VMI will offer much resistance in this game. The key to sprinting past this total will be the game flow at the end. If VMI can keep Mercer interested for the full 40 minutes, I foresee a game that approaches 160. If Mercer runs away with things early, it could get dicey.
That’s why I like VMI to give a full effort on its home floor as it tries to reverse Mercer’s stranglehold on this series (7-1 over last eight).
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