Florida vs. Florida State Odds

Either I’ve been watching different games or I’ve just been more focused on hoops while the bookmakers have been watching football.

Florida State has a nice, athletic team, but the grittiness we’ve come to expect from Leonard Hamilton’s group has yet to show itself.  Meanwhile, the Florida defense has smothered opponents since Day 1 (ask Boston College), yet has been almost equally as efficient on the offensive end.

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Florida Gators

It’s becoming cliche. Outside of Kemba Walker’s UConn team, in order to cut down the nets in March, you must be top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to the KenPom rankings.

As it turns out, these Gators aren’t quite there currently, but they’re knocking on the door as the 18th-ranked team in the country in defensive efficiency while boasting the nation’s 22nd rank offense in offensive efficiency.

Like all Mike White teams, it starts on the defensive end. They play man-to-man, but they help so well that it almost looks like they’ve got six guys on the court, at times. After a make they also have the tendency to pick up full court.

Unlike most presses, which mainly serve to create a frenetic pace, the hallmark of Mike White pressing teams is they rarely give up the easy bucket. They emphasize forcing turnovers slightly less and focus more on wearing down the opponent and bleeding the opposing shot clock.

What’s different about Florida this season is their aggression on the offensive end. No longer a team who wants to make both ends of the court a grind, these Gators rank 20th in offensive possession length. They’re more than willing to take the opportunity when it presents itself and they’ve shown the ability to finish.

Forward Keyonte Johnson has been filling it up (19.7 PPG on 63.9% shooting) and sophomore G Tre Mann is becoming the player Florida thought it was getting when he arrived on campus last fall.

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Florida State Seminoles

In a down year for the ACC, many are picking these Florida State Seminoles as the class of the conference.

They are led by do-everything freshman point guard Scottie Barnes (who actually played forward in high school). This highly-touted prospect from West Palm Beach hasn’t yet gotten the shots to drop at a level he’d like, but his 5 rebounds and 5.5 assists per are a testament to his overall game. Barnes also knocked down the game winner in overtime against Indiana. He is just now scratching the surface on his enormous potential.

This potential is also on display on the defensive end. As we all know, those who refuse to play defense need not apply for a spot on a Richard Hamilton team.

This year’s FSU squad checks all the boxes we would expect from a Hamilton squad. They rank 14th in the country at causing turnovers, 16th in defensive efficiency and third in offensive rebounding.

Even so, they looked like a work in progress on Wednesday against IU. They gave up more easy baskets to IU’s star forward Trace Jackson-Davis than one would expect, they are having some trouble scoring (ranking 212th in effective FG%) and you would like to see them do a slightly better job getting to the foul line.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a Gators’ team hitting on all cylinders vs. a Florida State side still learning to play together.

The Florida edge on offense should be enough for them to leave Tallahassee with a win on Saturday morning.

Pick: Florida +2.5. Play up to -2.5.