Georgia vs. Missouri Odds

Georgia looks to finish its season strong Saturday when it hits the road to take on Missouri.

It’s been an interesting season for the Bulldogs. Kirby Smart’s squad has been blown out by Alabama and Florida in its two biggest tests of the season but has taken care of business against lesser opponents. With Florida already having won the SEC East, Georgia doesn’t have much to play for in this game.

Missouri has won three consecutive SEC games, vaulting it into the top 25. The Tigers have won every game they were supposed to this season but have been routed by Alabama, Tennessee and Florida. A win in this spot could give head coach Eli Drinkwitz his first big victory.

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Georgia Bulldogs

Offense

Smart has made a change at quarterback, which has benefitted the Bulldogs’ offense. JT Daniels has taken over Todd Monken’s offense, throwing for 10.0 yards per attempt in his first two starts. However, it’s difficult to predict how often Georgia is going to use Daniels due to the fact he only attempted 16 passes against South Carolina.

My guess is the Bulldogs will likely open up the passing game against Missouri’s average secondary.

Coming into the season, the Bulldogs lost four starters on their offensive line, including both tackles. However, they’ve stepped up their level of play, allowing only 15 sacks on the season.

The run game has been the strength of the Georgia offense, ranking 17th in rushing success, per College Football Data, and averaging 4.5 yards per carry.  Missouri has been average versus the run, so I expect Georgia to lean on the running game in this meeting.

Defense

Smart’s defense was been amazing versus lesser opponents. However, it got torched through the air against Florida and Alabama, allowing 11.72 yards per attempt. That is a major step back from last season when the Bulldogs lead the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed (4.8 yards).

Freshman quarterback Connor Bazelak has been on fire the last three games for Missouri, so Georgia’s secondary better be ready to play.

Georgia’s run defense has been outstanding, ranking inside the top 20 in both defensive rushing success and explosive rushing allowed, per College Football Data. The Bulldogs are only allowing 2.4 yards per carry, so they could force Missouri to become one dimensional.

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Missouri Tigers

Offense

The strength of the Tigers’ offense has been its passing game. Bazelak has been really efficient, throwing the ball for 7.8 yards per attempt and putting Missouri in the top half of college football in Passing Success, per College Football Data.

Missouri has had to rely on transfers Jalen Knox and Damon Hazelton, who have tried to replace the team’s top three targets from last year. They’ve been average so far, combining for 53 catches and 502 yards receiving.

The run game behind Larry Rountree III was the strength of the Tigers coming into the season. It struggled at the beginning but has really turned it on the last three games, running the ball for 5.4 yards per carry. Rountree has led the way, rushing for 403 yards and seven touchdowns in those three games.

Defense 

In 2019, Missouri boasted one of the best defenses in the country, but that hasn’t carried over into 2020. The Tigers are ranked 99th in Defensive Rushing Success, mainly due to the fact they lost Jordan Elliott on the defensive line.

Missouri might have the best linebacker in all of college football in Nick Bolton, who already has racked up 80 tackles in eight games. The Tigers will need him to play his best game of the season if they’re going to upset Georgia.

Missouri has been pretty average against the pass, mainly because it’s breaking in two new corners. The Tigers have allowed 7.6 yards per attempt and rank 44th in Passing Success Allowed, per College Football Data.

However, they should be able to shut down Georgia’s passing attack that ranks 79th in Passing Success.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

It’s another season where Smart has fallen short of the College Football Playoff, so Georgia might come out flat in a 12 p.m. game that means nothing.

For the Tigers to compete in this game, they’re going to have to throw the ball with a lot of success or else the Bulldogs’ defense is going to dominate.

I have Georgia projected as only a -9.62 favorite, so I think there is a little bit of value on Missouri at +13.5. However, I wouldn’t play it any lower than that number.

Pick: Missouri +13.5.