LSU vs. Florida Odds

LSU and Florida meet Saturday in Gainesville for an SEC clash. Although they have already clinched a berth in the conference title game, the Gators still have plenty to play for in this showdown.

A loss to LSU would be a big blow to Florida’s playoff chances, even if it manages to beat Alabama next week. The Gators might still get in with two losses, but they want to take care of business here and not run into a situation where they’re a two-loss SEC champion, with a one-loss Texas A&M team that beat them lurking into the weeds.

Also, Kyle Trask is in a battle with Alabama’s Mac Jones for the Heisman Trophy.  I suspect the Gators will do everything they can to help him put up monster numbers in his last two games and bring the trophy back to Florida.

It has been a rough season for head coach Ed Orgeron and the defending national champion Tigers. LSU lost 13 players to the NFL Draft and a few other key contributors to opt-outs prior to (and during) the season.

After getting waxed by rival Alabama, 55-17, last week, a trip to Florida is not exactly what the doctor ordered.

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LSU Tigers

Offense

A major reason the Tigers have been unable to maintain success this season is the quarterback play.

Senior Myles Brennan looked good in his three starts, but he was injured in the Missouri game and is out the rest of the season. TJ Finley has started every game since, and his play has been very up and down. Freshman Max Johnson has appeared in four games and had his best showing in relief of Finley against Alabama last week. Orgeron said there’s a chance we could see Johnson start his first game on Saturday.

Whoever is taking the snaps versus Florida will not have the security blanket of Terrace Marshall to distribute the ball to. Marshall was thriving as the Tigers’ No. 1 receiver this season, recording 10 touchdowns and averaging over 100 yards receiving in seven games of action before opting out of the season prior to the Alabama game.

Furthermore, tight end Arik Gilbert, the Tigers’ second-leading receiver, announced Wednesday he is opting out of the remainder of the season.

The Florida secondary has shown some vulnerability this season, and the Tigers do have young talent in the receiving corps ready to step up. However, not having the top targets on the outside to lean on could make it difficult for the LSU passing game to get in a rhythm against the Gators.

Defense

The Tigers lost so much production on the defensive side of the ball from the 2019 national-championship team. Their inexperience has really hurt them against strong SEC offenses. LSU ranks 115th in the nation in total defense, giving up 7.1 yards per play.

The Tigers have arguably the best cornerbackin sophomore Derrick Stingley — but Stingley can’t cover everybody. The secondary has been getting torched all season against good quarterbacks, and it’s doubtful it’ll find any answers before facing the mighty Trask.

The Tigers rank 125th in passing defense and 118th in opponent completions over 20 yards. They were torched by Jones and Alabama, as Jones went off for 385 yards and four first-half touchdowns. Jones averaged a ridiculous 19.25 yards per completion for the game and threw long touchdown passes of 61 and 65 yards to Devonta Smith.

Trask will look to exceed those numbers and, with a multitude of weapons on the outside, is more than capable of completing long passes downfield early and often.

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Florida Gators

Offense

There’s not too much that needs to be said about this Florida offense. It’s an elite unit and one of the best in all of college football.

The offense starts with Trask and star tight end Kyle Pitts. Trask’s numbers are ridiculous. He has posted 3,243 yards, 38 touchdowns, and only three interceptions in nine games. He’s been deadly accurate as well, completing 71.4 percent of his throws.

Pitts is putting on a show as well, recording 11 touchdowns and ranking second on the team in receptions and yards despite missing two games.

Wide receivers Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes are also having great campaigns. The duo has combined for more than 1,000 yards and 16 touchdowns. Florida leads the nation in passing yards per game and should have no issue throwing the ball on a struggling LSU secondary.

Defense

The Florida defense has been strong for the most part, but has had a few poor showings. From a statistical standpoint, it’s slightly above the national average in most categories but ranks below average in defending the pass.

The Gators defense hasn’t been tested at all in the last three weeks. It faced a Tennessee team that attempting to break in two new quarterbacks last week and never found a rhythm. Before that, it played two teams that pose little threats offensively in Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

Earlier in the season, the secondary struggled facing better passing attacks. Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Arkansas all put up 35-plus points on the Gators, with at least 450 yards of offense. Now, I’m not saying that LSU can move the ball as well as these teams, but it’s a step up from what Florida has seen in the last three games and will be throwing the ball a lot.

Like the Tigers, the Gators’ secondary has been susceptible to giving up big plays. It must be prepared for some shots downfield because even though the Tigers’ season hasn’t gone to plan, they will be going down swinging in their last game while looking to establish the deep ball.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

There are several factors that lead me to believe the over is the right play here.

First, there’s the Trask Heisman campaign. It’s no secret that Trask and Jones are in a tight race, and it will likely come down to how they play head-to-head in the SEC title game. However, Trask has the more impressive numbers right now and will want to keep it that way before their showdown with the Crimson Tide. He should have an easy time lighting up a weak Tigers secondary.

Second, I don’t think we’ll see a lot of running plays from either side. Both team’s offenses are weaker running the football than throwing it, and both defenses are stronger at defending the run than the pass. Translation: Expect a ton of passing in this contest.

Lastly, I think we’ll see a lot of fight out of LSU. Coach O’s teams never quit, and the Tigers have historically played well after a loss during his tenure.

While the defense will play hard, Florida just presents too much of a mismatch for the Tigers to keep the Gators from lighting up the scoreboard. On the other side of the ball, I think we’ll see a surprisingly strong performance from the LSU offense. The Tigers really only need to score 17-24 points to push this total over, and I think they can get there.

Pick: Over 67.5 (up to 70).