David Becker/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Gilliam.
UNLV vs. Hawaii Odds
| UNLV Odds | +20 [BET NOW] |
| Hawaii Odds | -20 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | +700 / -1250 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 57.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBD |
| Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today. | |
The UNLV Rebels (0-5) make the treacherous journey to Honolulu to face the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-4) in Aloha Stadium for both team’s season finales on Saturday.
This marks the 30th all-time matchup between the two programs with Hawaii leading the all-time series, 17-12. The two teams are competing for the Island Showdown Trophy, which Hawaii has held since 2018 after winning in Sin City last year, 21-7.
UNLV had its game against Boise State canceled last weekend due to COVID-19 positivity rates in Las Vegas. Prior to the cancellation, UNLV lost to Wyoming, 45-14. Wyoming brutalized UNLV on the ground, rushing for 399 yards.
Hawaii lost to undefeated San Jose State last weekend, 35-24. The Spartans jumped out to an early lead in the first quarter that proved to be insurmountable for Hawaii. The Spartan ground attack was too much for the Warriors, as they went for 288 yards and three touchdowns.
UNLV is 0-4-1 against the spread (ATS), and two of the Rebels’ five games have hit the over. Meanwhile, Hawaii is 3-4 ATS and has had two of its five games hit the over.
Hawaii will look to secure a .500 season with a win here, while UNLV searches for its first win of the season. Look for the Rebels to be scrappy as they try to hang with the Warriors.
UNLV Rebels
UNLV has played a tough schedule so far this year, with its five opponents amassing an impressive 20-9 record. Freshman wide receiver Kyle Williams has emerged as the top option in the receiving corps, averaging five receptions per game. Senior running back Charles Williams leads the backfield, averaging nearly 70 yards per game.
The Rebels rank 119th in FBS total offense, averaging 304 yards per game. They hold an Offensive Predicted Points Added (PPA) per play mark of 0.11, which ranks in 94th in FBS. UNLV is good at controlling the clock when it has the ball with laborious, run-heavy drives.
Opposing teams are generating Havoc against the Rebels on 22.1% of plays, which ranks them almost dead last in FBS. Altogether, the Rebels are average only 16.6 points per game this season.
Unfortunately, the Rebels’ defense hasn’t been any better than the offense. The defense has one interception and 10 sacks as it heads into the regular season finale.
UNLV ranks 118th in FBS total defense, allowing an average of 472.6 yards per game. It owns a defensive PPA per play mark of 0.36, which ranks 123rd in FBS, again dangerously close to the bottom.
It should come as no surprise that the defense is not generating a lot of Havoc, only disrupting the opposing offense 13.6% of the time. The Rebels’ Havoc rate is 108th in the nation. A lot of rankings in the below 100 should be a boon for a Hawaii offense that has been acclimated to local time for a while.
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Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Hawaii is playing on the island for the fourth straight week, which should bode well for the team.
Redshirt sophomore quarterback Chevan Cordeiro has been the entire show for the Hawaii offense. He averages 242 yards passing per game and has thrown 11 touchdowns and five interceptions while also leading the team in rushing. Look for an exciting performance from him against a troubled UNLV defense.
Hawaii ranks 78th in FBS total offense, averaging 379.7 yards per game. The Rainbow Warriors have an offensive PPA per play of 0.19, which ranks 49th in FBS. The significantly higher PPA ranking speaks to the Warriors ability to put points on the board.
Additionally, the Warriors allow Havoc on only 16.8% of plays, good for 65th in the country. The Hawaii offensive line has a combined 156 career starts and has played an important role in the team’s offensive success this season.
Sophomore LB Darius Muasau is the unquestioned leader of the Rainbow Warriors’ defense. He has 77 total tackles and 2.5 sacks, and his average of 11 tackles per game is tied for 13th nationally. Expect a big showing from him and the rest of Hawaii’s defense.
Hawaii’s defense ranked in the middle of the FBS in most categories but shouldn’t have an issue facing the insipid UNLV offense.
Hawaii ranks 68th in FBS total defense, allowing 415.6 yards per game. The Rainbow Warriors hold a defensive PPA per play of 0.18, which ranks 71st in FBS, and they generate Havoc on 17.1% of plays, 62nd in FBS.
Betting Analysis & Pick
UNLV heads out west for a matchup with a team that hasn’t had to deal with a significant time-zone change over the past four weeks.
Given UNLV’s long trip and scoring problems this season, I think the play is to take the under on UNLV’s team total. Hawaii’s defense is more than capable of holding the Rebels under 17.5 points after allowing 24 and 35 points to Nevada and San Jose State in recent weeks.
Pick: UNLV under 17.5 points or better.
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