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I generally leave the weather-related college football betting content to late in the week. Forecasts, obviously, can change in short order, and the betting market often doesn’t react significantly until they’re more definite — which can be as late as gameday morning.
But this week is looking like something else. As of Wednesday afternoon, a baker’s dozen games have weather implications worth noting, and oddsmakers have already started to take note — in some cases, significantly.
They’ll be updated at the bottom of this page over the remaining days until kickoffs, but let’s first start with why weather matters in football betting.
Windy Unders PRO Betting System
When it comes to affecting football scoring, wind is Mother Nature’s key element. In fact, since 2005 (the start of our database), college football games played in winds of 13 mph or more have hit the under at a 57% rate (at the closing number) on a sample of more than 1,000 games (568-434-34).
And that makes sense. Increasing wind speeds make it more difficult to move the ball through the air, cutting down the number of big passing plays and putting a greater emphasis on the run game, which keeps the clock on the move, reducing the number of drives and therefore, overall scoring chances. Of course, field-goal kickers face an additional challenge as well.
And while it diminishes the sample, bumping the threshold up to 17 mph or more increases the win rate to 59%, and going up to 20-plus mph returns a 65% clip. That may be worth noting for a few games on Saturday’s slate.
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College Football Windy Weather Forecasts
Odds, forecasts as of 9 a.m. ET Thursday.
Minnesota vs. Nebraska
12 p.m. ET | FOX Sports 1 | Lincoln, Neb.
- Conditions: Overcast
- Projected wind speeds: 14 to 15 mph
- O/U open to current: 59.5 to 59 (see live odds)
Illinois vs. Northwestern
12 p.m. ET | ESPN2 | Evanston, Ill.
- Conditions: Rain
- Projected wind speeds: 24 to 25 mph
- O/U open to current: 45.5 to 40.5 (see live odds)
Wake Forest vs. Louisville
12 p.m. ET | ACC Network | Louisville, Ky.
- Conditions: Possible light rain
- Projected wind speeds: 15 to 16 mph
- O/U open to current: 65 to 63.5 (see live odds)
Western Michigan vs. Ball State
12 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Muncie, Ind.
- Conditions: Light rain
- Projected wind speeds: 21 mph
- O/U open to current: 71.5 to 67.5 (see live odds)
Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan
12 p.m. ET | ESPN3 | Ypsilanti, Mich.
- Conditions: Rain
- Projected wind speeds: 9 to 12 mph
- O/U open to current: 60.5 to 55.5 (see live odds)
Houston vs. Memphis
12 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Memphis, Tenn.
- Conditions: Mostly cloudy
- Projected wind speeds: 11 to 14 mph
- O/U open to current: 63 to 62.5 (see live odds)
Incarnate Word vs. Arkansas State
3 p.m. ET | ESPN3 | Jonesboro, Ark.
- Conditions: Partly cloudy
- Projected wind speeds: 14 to 16 mph
- O/U open to current: 71 to 71 (see live odds)
Central Michigan vs. Toledo
3 p.m. ET | ESPN3 | Toledo, Ohio
- Conditions: Rain
- Projected wind speeds: 14 to 18 mph
- O/U open to current: 55.5 to 52.5 (see live odds)
Wisconsin vs. Iowa
3:30 p.m. ET | FOX Sports 1 | Iowa City, Iowa
- Conditions: Chance of snow
- Projected wind speeds: 15 to 18 mph
- O/U open to current: 44 to 41.5 (see live odds)
Texas vs. Kansas
3:30 p.m. ET | ESPNU | Lawrence, Kan.
- Conditions: Overcast
- Projected wind speeds: 10 to 14 mph
- O/U open to current: 61.5 to 60.5 (see live odds)
Boise State vs. Wyoming
6 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network | Laramie, Wyo.
- Conditions: Mostly cloudy
- Projected wind speeds: 10 to 11 mph
- O/U open to current: 48.5 to 47 (see live odds)
UNLV vs. Hawaii
11 p.m. ET | Spectrum Sports | Honolulu, Hawaii
- Conditions: Partly cloudy
- Projected wind speeds: 17 mph
- O/U open to current: 57 to 57 (see live odds)
