Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno Odds, Pick & Prediction: Back the Flyweight Champ on Short Rest at UFC 256

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno Odds

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Twenty one days. That is how much time will have passed when UFC Flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo and No. 1-ranked Flyweight contender Brandon Moreno enter the octagon since both men last fought.

Figueiredo carries a five-fight win streak, which includes four consecutive finishes into Saturday’s main event, while Moreno has won three in a row over the past year as he moved up the Flyweight ranks.

Below I break preview the matchup and odds for the UFC 256 main event. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

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Figueiredo vs. Moreno Pick

I previewed both fighters for UFC 255 just a few weeks ago, and find it incredibly intriguing from a spot perspective that Figueiredo – who looks massive in the octagon on fight night and has previously struggled to make 125 – has now had to cut weight twice in one month; though he was first on the scale on Friday.

That only lends further credence to outstanding questions about his ability to sustain in the championship rounds – as we have yet to see Deiveson’s stamina past the 15-minute mark (8:57 average fight time).

That’s because “Deus Da Guerra” – God of War – is a complete anomaly at Flyweight or any division for that matter.

Deiveson Figueiredo's 8 knockdowns have come on just 448 significant strike attempts.

Only one fighter in UFC history has at least 8 knockdowns with fewer attempts — Pat Barry (8 KD, 361 significant strike attempts)#UFC256

— MMA By The Numbers (@NumbersMMA) December 10, 2020

Figueiredo lands a low volume of strikes (2.79 per minute) – which ranks in the bottom third of fighters historically –  but at high efficiency (55% accuracy) while loading up for power on each attempt – putting his relative damage (for his weight class) on par with Francis Ngannou.

Deiveson’s 1.34 knockdowns per 15 minutes ranks 11th in UFC history.

Unfortunately, his finishing style is fundamentally flawed – as Figuerido rarely tries to win minutes, and he is typically going to be vulnerable on the scorecards if he cannot secure wins inside the distance.

Officially, Moreno has never been finished in a professional bout, but he was submitted on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016 by Alexandre Pantoja. And unlike Perez, who historically strikes at high volume, Moreno is both far less active and less efficient (35% striking accuracy) on the feet – widening the path for a more powerful and precise Figuerido to win by the decision even if he does survive.

However, Moreno is more likely than Perez to get into a brawl and create a high variance fight – which should serve to increase his own win probability as an underdog but could ultimately end in disaster against the type of fighter who almost always capitalizes on chaos.

Figuerido was annoyed that he didn’t receive a performance bonus following his win over Perez – and will be in search of that 50K bonus – in addition to likely Fighter of the Year status – if he can complete the shortest title defense in UFC history on Saturday.

There is value on Figuerido’s moneyline to about -300 (implied 75%), a 4% edge compared to my projection, but I prefer Daico’s inside the distance prop to roughly -200 (implied 66.7%) relative to my projection at -245 (implied 71.1%).

Pound for pound, there are few better in the world right now than Deiveson Figuerido is at 125.

The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo wins Inside the Distance (-152)

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