Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Junior Dos Santos.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Cyril Gane Odds
| Dos Santos odds | -333 [BET NOW] |
| Gane odds | -455 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-139/+105) [BET NOW] |
| Venue | UFC APEX, Las Vegas |
| Time | Approx. 10 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN PPV |
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No. 7-ranked Heavyweight contender Junior Dos Santos needs a win badly and will seemingly have to pull off a big upset as he has the second-longest odds on Saturday’s card. His opponent, Cyril Gane has won all three of his UFC bouts while Dos Santos has dropped three straight entering this matchup.
Below I break preview the matchup and odds for this heavyweight scrap on the UFC 256 main card. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Main Event | Dos Santos | Gane |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-8 | 6-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:53 | 11:19 |
| Height | 6’4″ | 6’4″ |
| Weight (pounds) | 238 | 245 |
| Reach (inches) | 77″ | 81″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/30/84 | 4/12/90 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.59 | 5.12 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.19 | 2.09 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 73% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.31 | 1.32 |
| TD Acc | 55% | 60% |
| TD Def | 81% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.9 |
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Dos Santos vs. Gane Pick
On the heels of three consecutive defeats – all by TKO – Junior dos Santos (“JDS”) is likely on the UFC’s chopping block with another loss here, to rising prospect Ciryl Gane.
At 36, JDS isn’t necessarily on the wrong side of the age curve for the heavyweight division, but the three-time fight of the night winner has absorbed a ton of damage throughout his career, and his durability might be fading more quickly than expected.
That being said, his potential glass chin is now fully priced into the line, after Gane opened as a -270 favorite. This is a serious step up in class for Gane, moving from unranked competition to face a former champion whose recent losses have all come against champions or title challengers (Cain Velasquez x2, Alistair Overeem, Stipe Miocic, Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes, Jairzinho Rozenstruik).
Gane hasn’t competed in nearly one year, but he has been a highly efficient striker (5.12 strikes landed per minute, +3.03 differential, 73% defense) in three UFC fights – primarily from distance – and will look to use his 4-inch reach advantage to pick away at JDS from the outside.
JDS plays a similar style, and unless his chin is completely shot, I expect to see a fairly technical kickboxing/boxing matchup during the early rounds, with either man looking to pick their spots for combinations.
As a result, while I show slight value on Gane’s props to win by knockout (projected -137, listed -125) or inside the distance (projected -155, listed -150), and on the dos Santos moneyline at +334 (implied 23%) relative to my projection (25%), my preferred play is the Over 1.5 rounds given the stylistic matchup of this Heavyweight fight.
The Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds (-139)
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