Denis Doyle/Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Kroos, Karim Benzema
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Odds
| Real Madrid odds | +138 [Bet Now] |
| Atletico Madrid odds | +205 [Bet Now] |
| Draw | +225 [Bet Now] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+115/-143) [Bet Now] |
| Time | Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | beIN Sports |
The Madrid Derby will look a bit different without fans, but there is still a ton at stake when Real Madrid battles Atletico Madrid on Saturday.
Atletico Madrid are atop the La Liga table with a six-point lead and a game in hand over their in-state rivals. A win on Saturday could put Atleti on their way to their first league title in seven years.
Real Madrid’s season is back on track after beating Sevilla last weekend and then following that up with a victory over Borussia Monchengladbach in the Champions League on Wednesday. Los Blancos dug themselves a hole after a bad start to their La Liga campaign, so they need a win on Saturday if they want to make a run at the title.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Real Madrid
Two vital wins over the past week have Real Madrid’s season back on track and with center back Sergio Ramos back and healthy, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Los Blancos continue to improve as the season goes on.
Real Madrid have not really had any issues creating offense, they are generating 1.89 expected goals per match in La Liga this season, but they have uncharacteristically struggled on defense allowing 1.3 xGA per match. But with Ramos back in the fold you can expect Real Madrid’s defensive record to improve.
Los Blancos have not lost a league match against Atleti since 2016.
Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone is in the midst of the most impressive stretch of his illustrious coaching career. Atletico are unbeaten in their last 26 league matches and have allowed only two goals in their first 10 matches of the season.
Atletico have been the most difficult defense to break down in all of Europe in 2020/21. Keeping eight players behind the ball, Atlético create a defensive wall that works in unison to deny the opposing team space to play through the center or between the lines. This forces opponents to play through the wide areas to access the penalty area.
Dating back the restart in June, Atlético have allowed just 0.88 xGA per 90 minutes in their patented 4-4-2. In fact, they’ve been so good that their xGA is the best mark across Europe’s five major leagues.
Although Atlético is one of the best defensive teams in the world, they lost one of their best defenders in Jose Gimenez for season due to injury. Additionally, one of their strikers, Diego Costa, is questionable for Saturday.
Projections and Pick
Atletico have had an easy start to their domestic season, though they did beat Barcelona in their lone difficult match. Real Madrid will be the best team they’ve faced all season in Spain and I think their 26-match unbeaten streak could come to an end.
With both teams averaging over 1.70 xGF per match, I think we will see some more scoring than we’re used to in the Madrid Derby. Thus, I like a bet on the Over 2.5 at +115.
Pick: Over 2.5 goals (+115)
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